METODOLOGIA PARA GERENCIAMENTO DE RISCOS EM PROJETOS DE TRANSMISSÃO DE ENERGIA ELÉTRICA COM FOCO NO PRAZO DE CONCLUSÃO APLICANDO O GERENCIAMENTO DE PROJETOS PELA CORRENTE CRÍTICA E SIMULAÇÃO DE MONTE CARLO

Abstract

The construction of electricity generation projects are held in places where there are specific conditions for its implementation, and it appears that these are not always close to the consumer markets. The energy needs to be transported to the consumption centers located many kilometers away, and to this end are used to power transmission lines. These developments are characterized by many different situations that impact on their time of completion. In order to pursue project management options so that deadlines are met, this research applies a risk management methodology for projects by means of the quantitative risk assessment. It is addressed to the energy transmission area with a focus on the project deadline. The proposed model adopts the Critical Chain Project Management – CCPM, whereby the appropriate activities duration are those achievable in the shortest time as possible. The use of CCPM calls for the application of buffers along the project schedule to control the uncertainties. The proposed methodology applies the Monte Carlo Simulation – MCS to the schedule, associating the Minimum, Most likely and Maximum times to the activities. The identified risks are related to these activities. The outcome resulting from the proposed methodology is quantitative and provides useful information to containment and contingency actions.