Análise de Risco em Prazos e Custos Aplicado à Indústria de Confecção Utilizando Simulação de Monte Carlo

Abstract

Good planning is crucial for companies to remain competitive and active in the market. For those working with projects this is even more important because poor planning hinders the fulfillment of its premises resulting in heavy losses for the company. According to research, a lot of companies have not finalized their projects within the given time and consequently in costs. This work aims to apply Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate whether a collection of clothes a confection located in Goiania fulfill the term planned or not, and the reflection of this in the costs. For this work were collected data from the company s schedule for the collection in the study, the total cost, process flow diagram, the risks inherent to the activities and reports of production orders monitoring, used to better understand the system and make the model conceptual and computational of it. The model was simulated in @RISK software, coupled with Microsoft Excel. After simulated, it was concluded that even in this work the company has completed his collection with 322 days, having a 330 days plan, and as a reduction of 0.57% in costs, there is a high possibility of failing to meet deadlines determined, due to high variability in inputs. Thus, it was found that the company should in addition to better monitor the implementation of the project, carry out a more precise analysis of the determination of deadlines planned for its activities, seeking to prevent these risks from occurring and generate losses.