Análise e modelagem estatística para caracterização climática da região hidrográfica do Xingu-PA

Abstract

Because of the changes in weather patterns in recent decades, understanding the climatic Elements and the uncertainties that permeate them are of extremely importance to define strategic measures and the uncertainties that pemeate them are of extremely importance to define strategic measures and minimize the possible risks arising from changes in climate. This study aimed to analyze and charcterize the space-time climatic variability of the Xingu- PA Hydrographic Region Related to the phenomenon El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The Results show climatic patterns with differente behavior among the variables, where the Precipitation presents greater variability, besides the inverse uward and downward Temperature behavior in the relative humidity of the air. It was verified the inverse Altimetric relation with the precipitation and temperature variables. Due to the high Variability in the climatic patterns, there was no adjustment to a probability density Function considering the entire dataset, which was only possible considering interval Periods. By the analysis of El Niño and La Niña there was a great influence of the Anomalies in the climate in differents periods, justifying extreme values identified in the Series. It was also verified a predominance of moderate and strong spatial dependence With low reach variographic, which makes it impossible to estimate new monitoring Points, necessiatating new approaches for joint use. The SARIMA model was shown to be a good approach for data modeling of temperature and relative air humidity with monthly mean, however, for monthly accumulated precipitation did not show good performance. The results indicate possible impacts on the economy and the availability of water in the drainage system of the Belo Monte Hydroelectric power Pant in the long time